Are heat pumps worth it? The real 2026 numbers

The short answer

For most homes, yes. Under the Ofgem price cap for October to December 2026, electricity costs 26.32p per kWh against 7.97p for gas, a ratio of 3.3 times. A well installed air source heat pump moves heat rather than burning fuel to create it, and typically runs at a seasonal coefficient of performance, or SCOP, of around 3.0, meaning roughly 3 kWh of heat delivered for every 1 kWh of electricity used. Multiply the two together and running costs land close to parity with gas, before the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant of up to £7,500 is even counted.

The grant that moves the maths

The Boiler Upgrade Scheme pays £7,500 towards an air source heat pump or a ground source heat pump in England and Wales, applied by your installation team directly against the quote so you never claim it back yourself. Homes with no mains gas connection that currently heat with oil or LPG can get an extra £1,500 on top, taking the total to £9,000, available until March 2027. That grant applies to the upfront hardware and installation cost, not the running cost, but it is the single biggest lever on the payback period for anyone replacing an oil or LPG system.

What real UK heat pump owners actually report

The largest UK study of heat pump owners, run by the innovation charity Nesta and covering 2,395 heat pump owners against 1,025 gas boiler owners across England, Scotland and Wales, found 80% of heat pump owners were very or fairly satisfied overall, against 70% of the gas boiler owners surveyed. Heat pump owners scored their systems particularly highly on safety, at 92%, and reliability, at 85%, comparable to or ahead of boilers on both. Satisfaction with running costs specifically came in at 67% for heat pump owners against 59% for boiler owners, which lines up with the arithmetic above rather than contradicting it.

The government's own Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project, which monitored 742 real heat pump installations across Scotland and England, reported that air source heat pumps can run efficiently even in cold weather, at roughly three times the efficiency of a gas boiler, and found no property type or age of building that was unsuitable for a heat pump. 85% of participants said they had already recommended, or were likely to recommend, a heat pump to a friend or family member.

Cold weather is not the obstacle it sounds like

The concern that heat pumps stop working, or become hopelessly inefficient, in a British winter does not hold up against the countries that actually run the most of them. Norway, Sweden, Finland and Estonia have the highest rates of heat pump ownership in Europe, and all four are colder than the UK through winter. The UK's average winter temperature in 2024 was above 5C, which is mild by comparison. The technology is proven at far lower temperatures than anything a British winter produces; what actually decides performance on a specific job is flow temperature and system design, covered in our flow temperature guide.

Running cost comparisons from Energy Saving Trust's heat pump guidance; the spark gap ratio recalculated from the Ofgem price cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026.

Where a heat pump genuinely struggles

The comparison above is not unconditional. A heat pump run at a high flow temperature to suit old, undersized radiators works harder for the same heat, which is the single biggest cause of a disappointing bill. A poorly insulated home costs more to heat with any technology, and a heat pump makes that cost more visible because it runs on electricity rather than gas. Our disadvantages of a heat pump guide sets out the honest list, and which homes suit a heat pump covers the property-level checks worth doing before you commit.

Cutting the running cost further

Because a heat pump's running cost is almost entirely an electricity bill, the two things that improve it fastest are a cheaper electricity rate and cheaper electricity generation. An off-peak tariff aimed at heat pump households, such as the Octopus Cosy tariff referenced on our own tariffs page, can shift a meaningful share of the day's heating load onto a lower rate. Pairing a heat pump with solar panels lets a well-insulated home cover part of its own electricity use directly, particularly in spring and autumn when heating demand and daylight overlap, and a battery banks any midday surplus for the evening heating peak instead of exporting it at the lowest rate on the table. Neither is required to make a heat pump worth it on the numbers above, but both improve on them, and modelling that pairing for your own roof takes minutes on the solar calculator.

Checking the numbers for your own home before you commit

The national comparison above is a starting point, not a verdict on your specific house, and three things move it more than anything else. First, your current heating fuel: the case for switching is strongest against oil and LPG, priced well above mains gas and eligible for the larger £9,000 grant, and weakest against a boiler you replaced in the last few years that is already running efficiently. Second, your EPC and insulation: a heat pump moves the same volume of heat regardless of how well the house holds onto it, so a leaky, poorly insulated property pays for that leak twice over, once in fabric heat loss and again in a heat pump working harder than it should have to. Third, your existing radiators and pipework, which decide whether the installation is a straightforward swap or a bigger job with more upsizing, covered properly in our radiators guide.

None of those three is something a national average can answer, which is exactly why the verdict below is a direction rather than a single number, and why the design call that follows it works from your actual house rather than a spreadsheet built for the median UK home.

The verdict

On the numbers as they stand in September 2026, a heat pump is worth it for most homes moving off oil, LPG or an older gas boiler, and it is close to cost neutral against a modern A-rated gas boiler before you count comfort, safety or the up to £9,000 grant. The Nesta survey and the government's own demonstration project both back that up from real installations rather than marketing claims, with the caveat that has been consistent in every serious study of the technology: sizing and insulation decide whether an individual household sees the good numbers or the bad ones.